

Following Ukraine’s audacious deep strikes on Russian strategic bomber bases, Moscow is facing mounting internal pressure to retaliate. While the Kremlin remains publicly silent pending investigation, media figures and bloggers have erupted with calls for harsh responses, including nuclear retaliation. Though such threats are not new in Russian rhetoric, the recent attacks - possibly disrupting Russia’s nuclear response capabilities - may challenge the limits of Moscow’s stated nuclear doctrine. An actual nuclear strike remains unlikely due to the immense diplomatic fallout it would trigger, particularly with key partners like China and India. A more probable reaction will take the form of intensified missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure. As Ukraine’s Western allies ease restrictions on weapons use, the Kremlin may feel compelled to escalate, risking unpredictable consequences in an already volatile war. Meanwhile, the two sides have failed to make progress in ceasefire talks in Istanbul: see
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