

Market expectations for an August interest rate cut diverge from economists' predictions. A Reuters poll of economists indicates that the Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates next week for the first time in over four years. Most economists surveyed—over 80%—anticipate the rate will drop to 5% from the current 5.25%, which is the highest it has been in over 15 years following 14 consecutive hikes. However, market sentiment is less certain. A slight majority (54%) believe rates will be held steady, while 46% anticipate a cut. Earlier predictions were more confident about a rate reduction, with 97% of economists in a June poll expecting a cut before the latest inflation data was released. The anticipated rate cut would make borrowing cheaper, as evidenced by Nationwide offering a five-year fixed-rate mortgage deal at less than 4%. The last interest rate cut occurred in March 2020 during the onset of COVID-19 in the UK. The Bank of England has maintained higher rates to combat inflation, aiming to bring it down to 2%. Despite recent drops in inflation, rates have remained at 5.25%.
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