In a surprise turnaround, right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro narrowly led incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Sunday’s first-round vote. Official results gave Bolsonaro 47.03% of valid votes and Lula 45.16%, ahead of a run-off election scheduled for 25 October. Bolsonaro, the 45-year-old son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, outperformed pre-election predictions: Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth non-consecutive presidential term. Congressional elections held simultaneously also strengthened Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party, which secured the largest representation in both chambers. The campaign will now enter a closely contested final phase focused on economic concerns, crime and political scandals. Bolsonaro has pledged to seek an amnesty for his imprisoned father, while Lula will need to seek additional support before the run-off. While Bolsonarism is strongly aligned with the US and Israel, Brazil also has a tight economic relationship with China, its largest trade partner. Bolsonaro has portrayed Trump as an ally and is expected to strengthen ties with Washington if elected.